2 comments about Real Options and Option-Embedded Securities.

1. I have read several real options books, and this is by far the worst. I would suggest reading Tom Copeland's book if you want a more applied discussion or Lenos Trigeorgis if you want a more theoretical discusison. In fact, Moore (the author) doesn't even really get to real options until ten or so chapters into the book. Theere is too much preliminary stuff that talks about derivatives and financial option strategies, which one does not expect from a real options book. I basically just flipped through the pages and read the interesting paragraphs. I was done in a half hour. Most of the other stuff I already knew from reading other derivatives texts



2. This book was thorough and comprehensive in its discussion of real options while remaining understandable. The real world examples, stories, and graphs helped increase my comprehension. I was most impressed by the author's detailed explanations of how options can be strategically used in corporate risk management. The chapters on valuation, modern option pricing, and capital investment decisions were excellent as well. Hands down the best book on real options that I have read.

5 comments about Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout.

1. This book is THE source for open range breakout material and theory. I have an original copy! lol
   
   The material still stands as solid and can teach you the meat.
   
   BUT
   
   It is outdated in many ways. Also, new markets have opened to the average trader (Forex for example) and there is no material or guidance on it in this old tome.
   
   I have seen this book auctioning for $400 to $1300 on Ebay!! WHY??!!! The meat of this is freely available online and market specific gurus have taken this material and brought it current and relevant. Before I would buy this book, I would seriously review and read materials on open range breakouts by those gurus. Those people have won and lost, have back tested, have learned and are sharing their knowledge in publications and books and seminars. Find your market gurus and get fresh info.
   
   Yes, open range breakouts are profitable! I enjoyed much success from them when I was first starting out but now I am more of a longer term trader and skip the day stuff for larger profits.



2. Well, Crabel certainly did a good job of gathering statistics from many years of commodities data prior to 1990 and presenting it in this book.
   
   Basically, the premise of the book is that there is a better than even probability of a trend day occurring after certain narrow range or inside days. A trend day is one where the price continues in one direction off the open and closes in that area. Narrow range is basically a contraction, so he is saying that "breakouts" or "expansion" is likely to occur after contraction. This is a 50-65% chance based on his examination of data from commodities prior to 1990.
   
   At first glance, anything above 50% would appear to be a profitable opportunity. But this does not take into consideration sampling bias (see below.) Also Crabel mentions this does not take into consideration commissions and slippage. So any true trading potential would need to minimize the fees to a small portion of the 50-65% profit margin. An improvement on this book would be the inclusion of a real market study with fees.
   
   Results including around 50% probabilities sometimes indicate random behavior. This includes even apparent non random probability (a "consistent" 65%) due to sampling bias. A comparitive study with today's markets would need to be done to determine whether the 50-65% results are still valid. There may have been certain market biases in his sampling period that no longer exist.
   
   So in order to determine whether this book presents a useful trading system, the above two studies would need to be completed. Assuming favorable results of the studies, this would be a day trading system that would work as the number of iterations increases (ie the number of trades.) So probably best suited to automated, computer trading, rather than manual trading.
   
   But the real improvement to this book would be the following: fitting a probability curve over the entry points off the open. Instead of two entry points (ORB +- 8 points, ORB +- 16 points), a random sample of the domain of entry points. The benefit of this would be to eliminate sampling bias and to identify profitable trading areas (if any). A probability function would give us an easy way to optimize the trading strategy, rather than relying on only two randomly chosen entry points that may or may not be optimal.
   
   Crabel is one of the very few who have had consistently profitable trading for over twenty years. It seems like he started out using the methods in this book. I'm sure he's expanded on/replaced/improved them over the years. It would be nice to see the methods his company uses now, but of course I'm not holding my breath for such trade secrets.
   
   My overall recommendation of this book is as follows: If you are a system trader/programmer, then you may benefit from obtaining a copy of this book and improving upon it in the manner I suggest above.
   
   If you do not fall under the sytem trader category, then I think the only benefit would be to learn about the contraction/expansion pattern, which you don't need this book for. You can learn about it online by searching for the following terms: "narrow range day, inside day, NR4." Keep in mind Crabel's results: these patterns are 45%-65% tradeable, not including commissions or slippage.



3. At first glance this may seem like any other trading book however I can assure you after much exhaustive computer analysis there is much more here than meets the eye. What many people do not know is that the exact methods which Toby Crabel uses for managing billions of dollars are disclosed within this book. I have in my possession due diligence documents which state his exact trading methodology and markets. I have pursued and collected almost everything that is available on the subject of Toby Crabel and his career. This book deserves a very slow in-depth and at sometimes painful read through over and over and over again! Of course it helps to be a computer guru so that you can make complete sense of all the patterns and become confident in them. Mark Brown www.markbrown.com



4. Well I bought this book in 1991, when I was just learning about technical trading. The ideas were mostly unique then, or at least had not been published together yet in one volume, from what I know.

   The main ideas in the book have to do with expansion and contraction in volatility and moves off the open (Opening Range
   Breakouts).

   Toby is a successful hedge fund manager, having worked for Victor Niederhoffer before starting his own company. Toby's
   returns are good, but his risk management is far better. Toby's funds have grown primarily due to his excellent risk management
   skills as opposed to his returns. In layman's terms this means that he hardly ever loses money but he doesn't make much for his clients. This is actually fairly unique and he should be commended for finding this niche in the business.

   I should say that I do know both Toby and Victor, although they are just industry acquaintances, not friends, and I have not seen them in a many years.

   For young struggling traders, the ideas in this book are available cheaper in other books or on the internet. They are also known as volatility breakout strategies. I suggest you pay not more than $200 for this book. If you can't buy it for less
   than that, look elsewhere.

   If you are a collector, than feel free to pay up for this
   book.




5. What the readers here say is true. I bought a used copy for about 1100 a few years back and was well worth it. An absolute tour-de-force of ideas and studies that are in use by Toby Crabel himself (he runs a hedge fund). The primary method he uses (ORB) is actually used by the majority of Hedge Funds today. I do reccomend that the reader check other auction sites for better deals.

5 comments about Option Volatility Trading Strategies, New and Updated Edition.

1. Congratulations for the delivery service! It was realy very fast, good! Book in very good conditions , like new. The only problem was the book content, I didn't like. Too simple. It's like an introduction for a begginer level student.



2. Compared to his first book, this one is a joke and makes you wonder whether Natenberg did write it himself. It was way to basic and brief for a serious vol trader and too involved for a beginner. I went through the book in 30 minutes and was extremely disappointed. The book has less than 100 pages of real content, not to mention large font size and double space. A good chunk was spent on talking about very basic concept of expected value and normal distribution. I hope anyone who is interested in trading option would know such things by heart. And the book ends very abruptly. In short, the technical content of the book is thin, not worth $20.



3. What little is there is good but the book appears to end as soon as it begins to appear useful. It's difficult to figure out for whom the book is intended: Too lightweight for those actually trading options, and too complicated for beginners. A real disappointment considering the reputation of the author!



4. first off let me say that "option volatility & pricing" is a masterwork - an essential option trader's read.
   
   but natenberg's latest is a very lightweight volume with little insight for most traders. there is some basic discussion of volatility definitions. however there is not really anything resembling a "trading strategy" discussed in the book unless you consider "buy low, sell high" as a strategy.
   
   to be fair, n. offers no pretense of uncovering any secret strategy for market success. his goal seems to be imparting an understanding of how volatility is the key concept to grasp for determining option prices. he does a nice job of distinguishing between various perspectives on volatility (historical vs. future vs. forecast vs. implied) but ultimately fails to discuss how any of these variables can be incorporated into a trading framework.
   
   at best, the book points readers to look at option prices and values in terms of volatility (again "buy underpriced vol, sell overpriced vol") but leaves it to the reader to make the decision on what is a decent price to pay. this is not much different from saying "your guess is as good as mine." if that's the case (and in many ways i actually believe this to be true), it really makes no difference if you incorporate sophisticated volatility modeling into your trading or just throw darts.
   
   no in depth discussion of commonly experienced trading puzzles like skew, surface, anomalies between expiration periods, and so on. just simple, not-at-all-mathmatical, layman's overview of probability and statistics. many on-line discussion groups offer far more in-depth treatment of volatility trading and it's quirks for free. if you understand "option volatility & pricing" no need to supplement your library with this (even though i've just listed my copy for sale).



5. No one has ever questioned that Natenberg literally wrote the book on option volatility and pricing, but I don't think anyone will argue it is not a light read. This new work is immensely more accessible and actually reads light a chat with the author. The professional or highly experienced trader might find it a good refresher at best, but for the newbie or average trader this book is a trove of answers and solid explanations. I haven't tried the tests at the end of the chapters (you can go to Traders' Library to take the online) but it looks like a good idea. The way I see it is this book is like the friend you had who read the instructions for the game Risk so you didn't have to. A great book to have on your shelf.

4 comments about The Mathematics of Options Trading.

1. This book sits within easy reach on my bookshelf!
   
   Today, there are so many books with the magical word "options" in the title that it is difficult to find the one that has the information you really need . . . to understand the fundamentals of options valuation, their trading strategies and their probable profits.
   
   This book stands in a class all its own. It brings definitive clarity to the analysis and application of the cornerstone of all options theory - - - the Black-Scholes model. Detailed analyses of the basic option strategies are provided (buying and selling of Calls, Covered Calls, Puts, Protective Puts and Spreads - - - Bull, Bear, Ratio, Back as well as Straddles, Strangles, Butterflies and Condors). The results that can be expected from these strategies at expiration are also presented.
   
   Two very useful programs are provided on a CD that evaluate the profit potential of these strategies given the current in- and out-of-the money option strikes on any underlying. These programs will be most accurate if the recent returns of the underlying are Gaussian distributed (well diversified ETFs, the S&P 500 or on any stock with a near-Gaussian return history). The author provides a sampling of some investment results that were achieved using these tools.



2. This book fails on so many fronts that space simply wont allow to cover everything. First off, the author commits the crime of not knowing his audience. He assumes that you know nothing about options and very little about math. He then proceeds to bore you in early chapters with math that isn't even required later on. What's the point!? Its not until you get half way through the book that you finally get into the real meat. By then, he's makes a huge leap from reviewing how you add 1 + 1 to suddenly assuming that you know 1st year college calculus all in the matter of 1 chapter. In short, he tries to appeal to all, but misses the mark. I am an engineer, I know math, thats why picked up this book!!
   
   Technically, I have many issues. First off, he more or less states that when selling naked puts you shouldn't worry about a move greater than 4 standard deviations because they never happen. Well my friend, although moves such as these do not occur frequently, they do occur often enough that I'd be concerned about using such a stratedgy. I have real life data from the past year to back up my claims. All the author has is theory. Go ask anyone holding a naked put in a pharmacutical company that just got shot down by the FDA what they think of a 4 SD move. They happen.
   
   The author then states throughout the book that these are his claims for how the methods that he presents should work, but he then goes on to say that they should be tested before committing any real money. What the heck!? Why publish a book only to say that you should do your own research to prove his methods!?
   
   I've been waiting for such a book for years! All the other options books out there miss the point of expected value. This book shines on that front. What's the point of winning 90% of your trades if you're a loser at the end of the day. That's the power of expected value. For years I've thought that if I could only come up with a way to accurately calculate expected values on options, then I could turn wall street into my own little casino and retire early! Well, its not that easy!
   
   I've been doing my own research for the past year on all the formulas presented in this book. I've analyzed 1,000's of positions every month on spread sheets with easily downloadable data. Word of warning, dont bet your house on the expected values holding up. Distributions of returns vary from month to month and they also vary depending on the length of time involved. These distribution profiles vary enough to screw up expected values. Distribution profiles also vary greatly depending if you're looking at a large cap or micro cap stock. Do your own research as the author warns and you'll see for yourself. Its been a very frustrating process because in theory the math should work and I should be rich by now, but in practice it doesn't work so well. It just speaks volumes to how difficult it is to make money long term trading options.
   
   I haven't given up the chase yet as I am continuing on with my research, testing and tweaking. This book should be credited for pushing me in the right direction, but its disappointing that the book falls short on its own real world exhaustive research.



3. If someone is looking for a basic understanding of the probalilistic nature of characterizing options behaviour without having sophisticated mathematical/statistical background this book almost uniquly provides that for you. Found the book's organization and clarity excellent with final set chapters bringing together all the lessons of early learnings very usefully expecially the calculations of the expected results for all common options strategies. One thing the reader needs to be aware of is that this book will not teach you how to trade options - there are much better books out there. After reading this book it will hopefully make you make a better decision on selection of the various options tools / strategies software in marketplace.



4. One of the best books on options currently available. Many books when it comes to the mathematics side of options, become very complicated, this is not the case here. It is well set out and easy to understand. Would highly recommend it be the first choice for anyone who is interested in or already trades options and may want a better understanding of the fundamentals.

No comments about The Complete Guide to Single Stock Futures.

No comments about Options: An Introduction.

1 comments about Wall Street Speculation: Its Tricks and Its Tragedies.

1. Keyes's book is an excellent analysis of the Wall Street speculator dominance of Wall Street,be it in 1900 or 2010 .It is as relevant today as it was when it was first published over 100 years ago.Like Adam Smith and J M Keynes,Keyes points out that it matters tremendously who dominates on Wall Street-the Captains of Industry or the Captains of Finance (Keyes refers to the Captains of Industry when he means the Captains of Finance).Smith identified and described the Captains of Finance correctly in 1776 in The Wealth of Nations as projectors,prodigals and imprudent risk takers.J M Keynes identified them in 1936 in his General Theory as speculators and rentiers.
   The important point made by Keyes is that the general public will always end up losing in the aggregate because they will always end up being the ones bailing out the speculators in one way or another,be it by direct government funded bailouts as in the 1980's,1990's,and 2000's or by the costs of deflation and inflation imposed on the general public in both the panic-crash -recession stage (deflation) or the bubble -mania stage (inflation).
   
   I highly recommend this book for the general citizen who does not have the time or inclination to study the work of Adam Smith or J M Keynes.Of course,the general reader will not have a complete understanding of the technical manner in which speculation damages the macroeconomy over time.However,he will quickly be able to conclude that all American Presidents since Jimmy Carter have been dominated by Wall Street.One only need look at Obama's economic advisors to see this today.

No comments about Audioseminar on CD "Becoming a Disciplined Trader: Techniques for achieving peak trading performance" (Audio) with Ari Kiev.

No comments about Anxiety Free Option Investing: Using Covered Spreads As A Hedge Vs. Downside Risk.

2 comments about Stock Index Futures & Options: The Ins and Outs of Trading Any Index, Anywhere (Wiley Trading).

1. While the book contains much detailed information about the history, regulatory environment and composition of the world's index futures, it does not provide much practical information about the "ins & outs of trading" these contracts.



2. Whether you think a CAC is the sound your cat makes when coughing up a hairball or a stock index in France, if you're a new investor or an experienced trader this book is an excellent reference to stock indexes worldwide. Susan Abbott Gidel starts with a brief history of the index and futures markets. Followed by an explanation of what makes the market move, definition of the market "players", and strategies for investing in stock indexes and index futures.

   The worldwide market indexes are summarized by region. Each index is individually defined in very readable layman's terms. Gidel explains what equities make up each index, how each one is calculated and how the index and index futures are traded. The book has a glossary and index that easily guide the reader through it's wealth of information making it easy to find an index comprised of stocks that suit your investment need.

   I enjoyed the book and plan on making it a permanent part of my financial library. Consider this book an investment. Think of it as an essential tool for understanding equities markets and diversifying your portfolio. It is a reference you'll find yourself going back to again and again.