5 comments about Payback Time: Making Big Money Is the Best Revenge!.

1. How do you find those 'diamonds in the rough'? When we look back at this time in the stock market we will realize it was/is the opportunity of a life time. I have been more of a technical trader, and kind of ignored the fundamentals. After attending Phil's seminar and reading both of his books I now have a much better appriciation and application of finding 'good companies at a discount'. Thank you again Phil.



2. What sets Phil Town and his book Payback Time apart is his simple, common sense approach to investing and his firm grasp of a strategy that will surely revolutionize the habits of small investors like me across the country. This book is perfect for my family as we look to rebuild our portfolio. Thank you Phil.



3. My trading ability and knowledge has never focused heavily on the longer-term buy-and-hold style, nor on stocks for that matter, but Phil's insight in this book has helped give me some insight and guidance that even an options-lover can appreciate! Phil's Rule #1 book lead me to also pick up and read Payback time, and I don't regret it. His style is easy and entertaining, while still being informative and, I hate to say it, educational!
   
   A definite recommend if you're trying to get some new insight on the market and a way to help get your account going in the right direction again.



4. Wow, what a great read. Payback Time is simply awesome. Phil explains things so that anyone can understand his strategies. This book is a must read if you want to take control of your own investment account as well as hold your broker more accountable for his/her recommendations.



5. After reading Rule #1 by Phil Town, I could not wait for Payback Time to be released, I read the first 2 chapters and that only made me want more. I finally got Payback Time and I actually sat down and sent through the entire book in 1 day, I am thrilled with the informaiton in the book and the honest approach to stock piling stock. The information on how to find a GREAT company that is undervalued is something I look forward to using in my own trading. Great Job Phil!

5 comments about The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It.

1. Very enjoyable summary of the most famous "quants" and their achievements and failures. Sometimes you're left wanting to know more about their trading strategies, especially Simmons from Rennaissance, the only one who reallly did not blow up. But i doubt there is any book with more insight into their strategies than this one for now.



2. "Fancy mathematical modeling can give people a false sense of security, which can lead to major catastrophes when risks turn out to be greater than assumed"
   
   That is the basic message of this book.
   
   So, what? Are we supposed to outlaw Math? Does anyone really believe bank CEOs would not make mistakes without the pernicious influence of Math? Did we need Quants to cause the great depression?
   
   This is a classic case of analyzing only one type of error and ignoring the potential for other types of error, something journalists and the public are very fond of doing. For example, the FDA focuses on saving lives by preventing bad drugs from coming to market. It ignores the lives lost because FDA regulations prevented or delayed good drugs from coming to market!
   
   Suppose fancy math did lead to over-investment and excessive risk taking. How do we know this error is worse than under-investment and a lack of risk taking? What if the only way to avoid the crisis of 2008 was to give up the growth from 2001 to 2007? Would we really be better off? Why do humans always have such a drive to "fix" perceived problems, when plenty of past lessons teach that "fixes" often create worse problems?
   
   Anyway, if anyone does figure out a method for determining the exactly correct amount of investment and risk taking, you can bet that method is going to involve MATH.



3. Every investor should read this book. The market really does work even to those who have enough money to think "The truth" is quantifiable.
   Not only education it's a fun read.



4. I was reading two books at once: THE QUANTS and THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET. I started QUANTS second and finished it first. For anyone with a solid understanding of Wall Street, QUANTS is a very, very fast and easy read. I read the whole book on the train between NYC and Alexandria, Va. To those who have a deeper understanding of Wall Street, QUANTS is also an incredibly disappointing book. The only "new" stuff I picked up was that Asness punched computer monitors...gossip stuff.
   I'd recommend MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET instead. I'd also recommend DEMON OF OUR OWN DESIGN.



5. Gambling at a phenomenal scale, that is what high finance has become. The arrogance and hubris comes across loud and clear.

5 comments about The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide: The Smartest Money Moves to Prepare for Any Crisis.

1. Lesson #1 on surviving suburban catastrophe...Don't buy your survival book on Kindle. When you need it, Kindle no workie.



2. As a survivalist guide, this book inevitably bears a resemblance to books written during the Great Oil Shock of 1979-82 by folks like Howard J. Ruff and Gary North. Like earlier survivalist figures, Sean Brodrick also writes frequently about world economic events and personal investment strategies in Internet newsletters.
   
   What this author may have been less anxious to reveal, however, is that the owner of Weiss Research -- for whose newsletters Broderick writes frequently -- was fined over $2 Million dollars by US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2006. Grounds for the Cease and Desist order were that Weiss and his chief editorial contributor Larry Edelson were acting as investment advisers without filing for the required SEC license. The SEC Administrative Proceeding may be found at [...].
   
   Thus a bit of reader advice: (a) earlier authors have covered this territory before, with similar degrees of hype -- while doing in quite a number of investors. And (b) some of this author's closest professional associates are people who have been accused of legal misrepresentation on investment matters. So it seems reasonable to view this book and its financial advice with a measured degree of polite skepticism.



3. Broderick's book was not at all what I expected from an investment recommendation point of view - pretty disappointing actually. The 4 star rating, however, comes from the honest treatment of the economic and political times that we live in. An outstanding rational treatment of how the average suburbanite can prepare themselves for some tough times. Not a foaming at the mouth survivalist book that will scare off your average american but one that will wake people up and give them some tools and resources to weather a storm. Not what I was expecting but highly recommended anyway - unless of course you are looking for...see beginning of paragraph.



4. This book covers a variety of necessary topics for the stay at home survivalist or anyone that breathes air for that matter. With each chapter laid out in a straight forward, common sense manner it makes it easy to quickly garner the insight and knowledge to better protect your family in a time of need.
   
   I have now read this book twice and some chapters even more. There is even a chapter on smart shopping for food and other necessary sundries that if followed will probably save you the cover price of the book on your first trip to the store. Plus, every chapter has a summary of the very minimum your could do to put yourself and your family one step ahead and better prepared for a crisis situation.
   
   I am of the opinion that you owe it to yourself, family and friends to at least have a basic knowledge of the topics covered in this book. It is tough to beat this book due to its simplisty to lay out a broad array of topics in consise detail. Pick it up, you will be happy that you did.



5. Over the years, I've lived through a large, disruptive earthquake in California, being snowed in for 3 days in Indiana, and now a 4-day power outage (complete with huge fallen trees in my yard) due to last week's record snowfall in Dallas. Each time, I patted myself on the back for my level of preparedness, but each time, I saw that there was room for improvement. The irony of finding this book is that I didn't find it until AFTER the power came back on! All I can say is, I've doubled my knowledge, which I thought was pretty extensive. Most of my neighbors turned to me for help getting through this recent event. Most of them thought of it as a disaster; I thought of it as an inconvenience. After reading this book, I'm beginning to think of it as a minor inconvenience. This is not some fringe camo-wearing, wacko-survivalist author (I've read a few of them, and they were a turn-off). The book doesn't preach doom and gloom, it makes you laugh and think about being ready for burps in the daily grind. This is meant for every couch-potato-type suburbanite out there. Read it now, or someday you might wish you had!

5 comments about The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition).

1. Ben Graham is a born genius! If you want to learn about stocks from anybody it would be from 4 people - Ben Graham (The Intelligent Investor), Warren Buffet, Philip Fischer (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits), and Peter lynch (One up on Wall Street). This book contains the framework and the foundations of stock investing. If your in the market and you did not read this book GET OUT and dont go back in till you read it! This book is essential. I cant stress it more. I must warn you though, Alot of it will be very boring but hey, something just cant be simplified. There is a commentary by Jason Zweig who makes it a bit simpler and using modern day examples.
   
   In short BUY THE BOOK!!!



2. I've just taken over the management of my investment portfolio from the brainless bank that let it lose 40% of its value in 2007 - 2009.
   
   For years I had heard of Graham as the "nec plus ultra" of all writers on investments, so this book was high on my reading list as I set to my new task.
   
   Unfortunately, the financial markets of 1972 (when Graham wrote this book) are far different from today's, despite the chapters written by Jason Zweig (interleaved with Graham's) which try to update and explain Graham's ideas in terms of the market environment of 2003. Read in 2010, Zweig's updates also seem quite dated.
   
   To achieve a prudent level of diversification today, most individual investors will use at least mutual funds, if not ETF's. The analysis of individual stocks is too time consuming. First one is up against professionals who do it for a living. Secondly, the complexity of today's markets for goods and services requires huge amounts of study before even looking at a company's financials. Thirdly, one should probably expect to analyse at least 20 companies before choosing one to invest in.
   
   If one wants to undertake individual stock picking, why not read this book before turning to Graham's "Security Analysis".
   
   If not, the purchase of a cheap second hand copy of the book can be justified, but primarily on the grounds of being able to skim it to see if one agrees with the words above.



3. Two of the core types of investing are value and growth investing. Value investing looks to find commodities at a price lower than their value while growth investing looks to find commodities with the potential to become larger. If you're interested in learning about value investing, this is definitely a book to check out.
   
   Originally published in 1949, the Intelligent Investor helped paved the way for value investors like Warren Buffet, who writes a preface for this revised edition. Even though II was created over 60 years ago, it's core concepts are still useful and true today.
   
   The biggest negative about this book is that it's relatively old. It was revised by Graham as recently as 1973 and includes updates by Jason Zweig but the majority of the content in the book was written over 40 years ago. Another downside is that it can be kind of grueling to read. That often comes with this subject matter but readability would help. At any rate, despite these shortcomings, the Intelligent Investor is a core book to learn about value investing.



4. Warren Buffett always refers to chapters 8 and 20 on market volatility and margin of safety, so I read those with extra attention, but Benjamin Graham had a confidence of purpose and clarity of explanation that makes it easy to see why he developed such a (mostly posthumous) dedicated following. Investors (The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville for one famous example) who follow the philosophies that Graham touts in this book have become consistently successful. Classic.



5. Deep dyve into investing, but clear and easy to follow. Shows a clear and logic way to approach investing in public companies that also can be used to invest in private companies

5 comments about The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History.

1. This book is a 30k foot level view of the financial crisis, poorly conceived, poorly executed. I've read just about all of Michael Lewis's books and articles covering the financial crisis, and he did a piece for Portfolio Mag. before it went under about the same topic. By the end of that article I was on the edge of my seat because he took you INTO the action, you were sitting there making a trade. I still remember Lewis's description of the traders in his article sitting in Sept. 08, shaking, watching traders leave the NY Stock exchange, knowing what they'd just pulled off. Anyway, compare that to this... the whole thing is written with an air of naivete and awestruck envy, like as if Zuckerman asked Paulson to put together a roundup of his accomplishments so the former could introduce the latter at a cocktail party or something, or Zuckerman wants to get invited to the big "bashes" he continually says Paulson hosts.
   
   Zuckerman also looses credibility throughout the book. For example, on page 72, Zuckerman discusses Paulson's first foray into Credit Default Swaps (CDSes). After making a $500k bet, to insure $100 million, he writes "Soon their position faced some small losses. They discovered that the value of CDS protection falls as the underlying debt gets closer to maturity." OK, really? Zuckerman expects me to believe that they didn't know this? Paulson and co had been playing in derivative markets for decades, and this is standard behavior of most, perhaps all, date-based derivatives, and I think I learned this in my undergrad finance course the first week. Zuckerman gradually looses credibility like this the whole book until @ the end we wonder if he really knows what he's writing about.
   
   Another example of the just strange reporting (p. 38): "Paulson went out of his way to embrace Jenny and her family. The couple agreed to wed in an Episcopalian church in Southhampton, and Paulson became friendly with the priest. Light streamed through the seaside church's Tiffany windows as the sun set and the ceremony began." You would, reasonably, expect this paragraph to be followed by, well, a description of the ceremony perhaps? Or an anecdote on the significance of Paulson getting friendly w/ the priest? You'd be wrong on both counts -- this is just an example of many strange irrelevant facts unskillfully woven into the book -- the next paragraph actually jumps forward 3 years and talks about other aspects of Paulson's private life. That's all we hear about the priest and the ceremony!
   
   Anyway, the writing style here is not well developed -- gets annoying after about the first 50 pages.



2. After reading so many books of the recent economic tsunami this approaches the subject from a different direction, those who successfully profited on a large scale. Now, this is particularly painful as a Mortgage Trader who began giving speeches in 2004 of "The Coming Crash in Home Prices". Unfortunately my largest bond fund was heavily invested in BBB tranches of mortgage securitizations and I was too bull headed/stubborn to exit this tragic occurrence. But this book also shows the mechanism that so few on Wall Street used until too late, some of which were thought not to be available to individuals but proven wrong here.
   
   But is this any reason to not enjoy American Capitalism at its best as a different investors including John Paulson took contrary postions while watching them drop in value until the ultimate collapse made them wealthy beyond imagination. While normal length, this book reads incredibly fast and does not bog down in trying to explain all of the entries of mortgage securitizations. I think it does an exceptional job of stating just enough about the instruments to give a good understanding to the reader allowing him to focus on the importance of "the greatest trade ever".
   
   If you are to read one book about the crash, this would be it. I can't recommend this book higher.



3. This book tells the story of several hedge fund and real estate investors who made a fortune by shorting collaterized debt obligations (mostly mortgage-backed)and companies, banks and hedge funds who delt in them. It explains how these instruments were structured, how they were sold, and how they were shorted, in plain language that anyone can understand. In almost every case these people had little or no experience with these instruments but just used their common sense in the face of all the highly educated "experts", with all their arcane mathmetical structures, pedantry, and hubris.
   Zuckerman also fleshes out the characters, gives details of their life, and describes the mind wracking experience they went through while playing their positions, hoping they would not make a wrong decision that would cause them to lose everything. Most of the time the problems caused to ordinary people by them and by Wall Street were not a consideration. Ethics were not an overriding issue with anyone on either side.
   
   This book also explains the OTC collaterized investment vehicles, shady real estate lending and the subsequent credit default swaps, that almost destroyed much of the world's banking system. Lucky for them, the American tax payer was forced to rescue these implacable, rebarbative people who are now doing business as usual, but that is beyond the purview of this book.



4. I read a LOT of these books more for educational reasons as I do not expect to enjoy them and hardly ever do. This, however, was an exception. Cliched and corny as it might sound, this book read more like a novel and actually developed some real tension. It this genre is you bag, this is a MUST read.



5. Exceedingly well researched, well written account of the unbelievably few who foresaw the seemingly obvious sub-prime mortgage and real estate crash. The author does a very nice job of giving biographical detail of the various players and telling an engaging story.
   
   John Paulson and a few other clairvoyants bucked the popular belief that real estate never decreases in value, and remembered the classic random walk theory (the events of the past have no relevance of the price of a stock tomorrow) in their analysis. The result, in Paulson's case, was $20B over two years for his hedge fund, and $6B for himself. Most others lost millions or billions, and some financial institutions lost every thing (Bear Sterns, Lehman Bros., etc.).
   
   I particularly liked how the author traced the results of other less known investors who profited big time. Lahde, Greene, and Lipkin made millions using the same basic trade as Paulson - investing in esoteric investments known as credit default swaps (CDS) to short sub prime mortgages.
   
   At times the author was somewhat repetitive, resulting in a book that could easily have 50 less pages (304 pages in total), but overall a quick and enjoyable read.

5 comments about The Elements of Investing.

1. Two long-standing powerhouse investment experts and authors, Ellis and Malkiel have teamed up to write a simple investing guide for the uninitiated. This book is best suited for those individuals who have a very limited or no investment knowledge, as well as for investors who have had no success or can't seem to make money consistently, especially in bull markets. This short and sweet book covers the basic elements of investing in a clear-cut step-by-step approach. Many new investors will benefit from its down to earth, easy-to-follow advice. Seasoned investors will not find anything new here. The keys to successful investing according to the authors include: saving early-on and consistently, using company and governments sponsored retirement plans to build wealth, diversification using index funds, rebalancing annually, using dollar-cost averaging, and investing for the long haul by ignoring market fluctuations.
   
   The authors strongly believe in the buy-and-hold mantra and the efficient market hypothesis. Unfortunately, using this approach with low-cost index funds is totally antiquated in today's financial world where we have seen two stock market crashes in the last decade where investors lost $11 trillion of market value. As the late Nobel Laureate economist, Paul Samuelson, has said: "The longer you own stocks, the greater the risk of a devastating loss." That is why buy-and-hold is doomed to failure.
   
   Today's investors need a pro-active investment strategy using a specific action plan with specific buy and sell rules. Since most investors will not or do not want to consider an active investing approach, then this book will certainly suit their needs and provide a decent return, although it is subject to being fully invested during future bear markets and crashes which will occur, as they have in the past.
   
   Buy-and-holding index funds is certainly a viable strategy, but it definitely has risk, more risk than most investors realize, and is certainly not an optimal approach. As in sports, a winning team requires both offense and defense. Buy-and-hold does not offer a defensive strategy when it is needed the most - during bear markets and crashes - and that is a major shortfall that is critical for investors to understand.
   
   Interestingly, the authors made a surprising statement as follows "charting is akin to astrology." This view is ridiculous in today's world in light of the hundreds of members of the Market Technician's Association who are Certified Market Technicians, the many members of National Association of Active Investment Managers, and the many large institutions and financial firms that have technical analysts on their staff who use charts to identify exit and entry points for the market. Using charts have helped many investors and institutions avoid this latest bear market. For example, by simply using the 200-day moving average with the major market averages, among other technical indicators, stock market losses were greatly reduced by being out of the market way before the September 2008 market debacle occurred.
   
   In summary, the authors present a rationale for using the well-known buy-and-hold approach. They don't seem to be swayed by the volatile and crushing crashes in the past decade, and that is their right. Investors need to understand that buy-and-hold is a dangerous approach in volatile times, and that they may want to consider alternative self-directed investing approaches to protect their hard-earned money in future years.



2. If you are a Burton Malkiel and/or Charles Ellis fan, do NOT buy this book. You presumably have already read some of their other works and this book adds nothing new. It is a very brief (small, short, large font, lots of white space) book that summarizes the basic investment lessons that you would already know. If I didn't have more respect for Malkiel/Ellis I would suggest that they created this book just to capitalize on their names. On the other hand, if you haven't read their works (or anything by John Bogle) then the lessons in this book will prove valuable. You will still feel like you overpaid for the book (it would make a good feature article in a magazine), but at least it may simplify the investment arena for you and provide you with some clear (albeit very succinct)direction.



3. To come from eminent Professors Malkiel and Ellis I was very disappointed. The small book is 117 pages and five chapters of commonsense advice on investing. The book begans with a few pages on "Do no harm" and never moves into any more exciting chapters than that. Make sure to take advantage of your 401(k) or IRA and diversify your portfolio. That's about it and others may feel otherwise but that is my opinion.



4. "The Elements of Investing" is a good starter book, a wonderful gift for a recent graduate, but I would recommend for more experienced investors Malkiel's "Random Walk down Wall Street." Elements starts by encouraging budgeting and debt control before moving on the basics of index investing. The books writing is clear and concise avoiding jargon or insider phrases.



5. Great little book. My husband bought one for himself and one for my sister.

5 comments about Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse.

1. If you live in Connecticut and will vote in the coming senatorial elections, PLEASE read his first book to guage his ability as a fiscal prognosticator. Then read this one paying close attention to his advice on investment decisions. He was dead wrong then and he is once again dead wrong in this book. He just doesn't get it and yet never misses an opportunity to tell the reader how he got it right.
   
   His advice in version 1 was to short the dollar, short treasuries, buy European/non US stocks, buy gold(from a state bank in Australia to be precise) as a hedge against the disaster. Well this didn't work out so well for anyone who took his advice then, and if a reader were to look at this advice as it has played out in 2010, it's not looking much better today.
   
   Please, the congress is chocked full of knuckleheads whose only legitimate claim of authority rests in their ability to have and express forcefully an opinion, however wrong, however dangerous. We don't need one more, especially one who is so incredibly unaware of his own lack of understanding of financial markets.



2. Peter Schiff predicted the future of this country in 2006. It's a must read.



3. The first book for the first full week of 2010 was Crash Proof 2.0 by Peter Schiff. A very awesome book based around the most recent economic crash. Most fascinatingly, the book Crash Proof was written by Peter in 2006, predicting, at that time, the upcoming economic crash. Crash Proof 2.0 was released in 2009 with additions at the end of each chapter for the new threats facing our country's economic condition. Schiff is a very knowledgeable man on all things fiscal and if this book isn't proof (no pun intended) then I don't know what is.
   
   What is going to happen now? Good Question. Well since America, and by America I mean Bernanke, has decided to run the Greenback Printing Press non-stop the country is producing lots and lots of dollars which increases the money supply and ultimately devalues the dollars already in existence. And our Fed has nearly doubled the money supply since 2008. This is sure to cause inflation and lots of it, but it is very hard to pinpoint the catalyst of this impending massive inflation.
   
   I would say there are two major causes that can result in the inflation. One, the shift of our country from manufacturing to service coupled with trillions of dollars of debt to China and other nations. And two, the shear multitude of currency our country is producing on a daily basis that our Fed is unable to account for coupled with the fact we have no longer have a gold backed currency.
   
   Manufacturing to Service
   
   America has transitioned itself into a new country. From the 20th to the 21st century, we have rapidly transformed ourself from a manufacturing society to a service society. When we had manufacturing, we were a country rich in assembly lines and new products. We even had the worlds largest automobile manufacturing city, Detroit. Now, we are all service. We have marketing firms, worldwide restaurant headquarters, retail and more.
   
   Since our country is no longer backed by the value of gold, the value of our currency is ultimately determined by the base value of what we can export to other nations. When we moved from manufacturing to service we lost a lot of our export value.... I picture societies and organizations as pyramids... The top are the CEOs or Presidents and the bottom are the majority of the population as the workforce. Where the base of our country's pyramid used to be cars, equipment, appliances, etc.... Now the base is the service of our working class... burger flippers and stockers. The only problem is that if the dollar's export value is based of the value of the bottom of our pyramid how are we going to trade? (I don't believe there is a large demand for a McDouble "made in the US" over in China) We can't and our dollars are increasingly becoming less valuable.
   
   As the dollar becomes less and less valuable the countries that own all of our debt get wise. They will realize that our money is able to trade for less and less and it is becoming a useless IOU. Their only option is to get rid of them. They will most likely use the trillions of dollars they have and use them to buy what they can within our country. So that means real estate and the products that we still produce. Following the law of supply and demand, if trillions of dollars are cashed in on lots and lots of real estate (since we don't have any laws establishing all US property must be purchased by US residents) and products are bought and less quantity is available for the general population... prices will spike... huge! And we have Humongous Inflation!
   
   A Currency Backed By Nothing
   
   The second potential cause for this massive inflation I would like to discuss is that the US no longer backs its currency with gold. I already have given the history lesson on this but I will recap again real quick with a timeline provided by [...]...
   
   1880-1914 - The US dollar was hard pegged to gold resulting in domestic price stability and virtually no inflation. The financial needs of WW1 ended this.
   1915-1925 -In order to "pay" for WW1 countries had to print a lot of paper currency which by necessity mandated a delinking from gold because there wasn't enough gold to support the paper.
   1926-1931 - The gold exchange standard was established wherein each country pegged its currency to the US dollar and British pound which were then supposed to be backed by the dollar. When the depression began countries tried to cash in their pounds and dollars for gold. That "run" on gold forced the end of the gold exchange standard.
   1931-1945 -Fiat currencies reign worldwide leading to huge economic imbalances from country to country and was of the major contributing factors to the beginning of WW2.
   1945-1968 - 1944 Bretton Woods (similar to gold exchange standard of 1926-1931) Two main currencies again, the US dollar and British pound. A run to convert pounds to gold collapsed the pound and began the end of the Bretton woods accord. It took 3 years while governments tried to salvage the system and also to determine what to do next. Kind of like having one leg on the boat and the other on shore. 1963 - New Federal Reserve notes with no promise to pay in "lawful money" was released. No guarantees, no value. This is also the year of the disappearance of the $1 silver certificate. Once again, a subtle shift in plain view.
   1973-?- August of 1971 President Nixon ended the international gold standard and for the first time no currency had a gold backing.
   
   As you can see... the US has a currency only worth as much as they say it is... so we are playing pretend. And the pretend value of our currency is decreased when more of that money is made... and the Fed decided to make trillions of new dollars last year alone... and where did that money go? They have no idea. This video speaks louder than anything I could say... it is Alan Grayson asking the Inspector General of the Fed where all the money they created went... and she doesn't know...
   
   
   
   What do we do now?
   
   Now that you can see that there is a problem it is time to protect your investments. I can't tell you when this economic collapse is going to happen, but I know it will. And the safest thing to do long term is to get your money into anything but the dollar. The longer our country holds debt with other nations and keeps printing money, the faster we turn our currency into toxic waste. Schiff outlines areas for investing in Crash Proof and I would love to expand on his ideas. He says you should invest in gold, silver and foreign stocks. I also love real estate investing and I will go into that as well. Hold on, this is going to get fun!
   
   Gold and Silver
   
   If you are a regular reader then you know its no secret how much I love precious metal investing. It's a wonderful commodity that hedges inflation and is very undervalued in terms of the dollar currently. More specifically, I love silver investing. I believe that silver is going to jump leaps and bounds in future years for several reasons. Silver is a commodity used for the backing and production of currency in many countries, it has tons of industrial applications: microchips, phones, cameras, etc.) and the mines for silver are becoming less plentiful everyday. Additionally, Silver is only about $17 a troy ounce compared to $1100 for a troy ounce of gold... so it is much easier to get into as a investor without throwing a lot of money into one basket. I recommend going to [...] and buy Silver Eagles so you have a coin that is exactly an ounce and silver content is .999.
   
   I wrote several months ago about Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver by Michael Maloney. Both authors, Maloney and Schiff, use the same techniques to come to their conclusions about the future of American economics. They are both members of the Austrian School, a specific school of economic thought. Other members of the Austrian School of thought include Lew Rockwell, Ludwig Von Mises, and Frank Fetter. I think it's a school of thought within economics that deserves more of my attention and you might just see a post in the future based solely on this subject.
   
   Foreign Stocks
   
   This is a great way to get yourself into a rising market and in two ways. When inflation hits the dollar the foreign stocks will be gaining in their respective currencies, so they will be making money against the dollar and if you have a good enough diversification you should be making money off the rising market too. I like index funds because they require a lot less work and the chances of beating the market longterm with stocks is nearly impossible. Foreign indexes can be purchased from a couple different sites... [...] both offer Foreign index funds with different minimum investments... Most likely around $10k.
   
   Real Estate
   
   My favorite investment... Real estate is a great way to get your money out of the dollar with the use of OPM (Other People's Money) and it's a debt-backed commodity. First, you use OPM through a bank. You put down 10-15% and they put down the rest and then you have your commodity. Meaning, it costs a relatively low amount of money to buy a lot of property. Additionally, you are backed by debt! I know sounds bad, but it's actually really good. The real estate investing I am most interested in is multifamily real estate. You find a property, and if the rents you earn are higher than the mortgage you will pay, expenses, property management, taxes, etc.... then you are making a positive cash flow. The great thing about being backed by debt in this case is that it is "good" debt meaning that you are making more money on the property than the bank is making in interest accumulation. Another huge benefit of being debt-backed is that when the US has huge inflation you will be paying off that mortgage with cheaper dollars. For example, you find a duplex for $300,000 and you put down $50K (for simplicity's sake). You have a $250,000 mortgage. Then when we have a huge amount of inflation, it may cost $10,000 for a loaf of bread because the dollar just isn't worth as much anymore. Well, where a lot of things will increase with inflation, your mortgage will not. That means that it won't cost much to pay off the remainder of your $250,000 mortgage because you will be paying it off in "less expensive dollars." Pretty nice huh?
   
   I don't write these things to scare you, but to inform. There is plenty of time to change your current investing habits. Many people said that Peter Schiff was just preaching doom and gloom back in 2006, but they were clearly wrong. And now, when the same man who foresaw the last crash says that it's going to happen again, only worse... well... let's just say I am not going to be the one to criticize. Peter Schiff is currently running for the CT Senate spot and I hope for the sake of America's fiscal policies that he gets elected.
   
   I recommend this book to anyone curious about what is to come of America's economy. If you have any questions on the book don't hesitate to ask. I would be more than happy to help anyone that wants it.



4. The value of this book is not only on the position it exposes you want to be in the coming economic events
   but in the tremendous insight of the fundamentals of world economics.
   It is easy explained because the author easy understands it, demonstrated through his predictions of dot com
   and housing bubble.
   
   You want to learn what the hell is happening with the money, read this book.



5. This book is great. Even if you don't agree with every view from Peter Schiff, you will certainly finish the book with a much better understand of economics. Personally, I find that I do agree with his views. Crash proof 2.0 is an update to the original crash proof. The cool thing about this book is that the new material is at the end of each chapter. So you are able to see how accurately he was able to predict the housing crisis. the updates at the end of each chapter bring his predictions more up to date on future events. I have recommended book to every one of my friends. now I am recommending it to you.

5 comments about How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad, Fourth Edition.

1. I read this at the urging of a friend. As background, I'm a retired professional investment advisor, have been through the Chartered Financial Analyst curriculum, and have decades of investing experience. I am therefore instantly suspicious of a book that promises on its back cover that "Anyone can learn to invest wisely with this bestselling investment system!"
   
   Granted, O'Neil clearly spends all his time with his charts, and otherwise must not get out yet. He comments that NASDAQ an OTC trading venue, not an exchange, when in fact NASDAQ gained exchange status in 2006. He thinks that air traffic accidents are investigated by the Civil Aeronautics Board, which lost its safety responsibilities to the FAA in 1978. Most tellingly, he writes, "Unfortunately, no original or thorough research on price pattern analysis has been done in the last 78 years." Even a brief perusal of the academic journals on investing and finance would have shown him that this isn't true.
   
   Much of the book focuses on chart reading. O'Neil includes many historical charts that clearly show his patterns. Unfortunately, many of the patterns are only clear in retrospect. For example, he describes a double-bottom pattern, shaped like a "W," where you should buy in as the right side moves up past the middle point of the W. Then he describes a double-bottom with handle, where the right side of the W is followed by a modest decline, and then you want to wait to buy until it reaches the top of the right side of the W. However, he describes no way to tell in advance whether the pattern will have a handle. By the time you know that there's a handle, you'll have already purchased on the right side of the W.
   
   As another example, he shows patterns for detecting market bottoms. However, you can look to the left of where he marks the bottom, and often see a false bottom that meets exactly the same criteria. I suspect that O'Neil, given his experience, has other ways to gauge the validity of these stock patterns. Unfortunately, if he can't describe them, it greatly reduces the value of the book.
   
   That probably explains why he adds the caveat that it takes years for someone to start reliably making money using his "system." Some people, with experience, will develop the same ability to figure out when the chart patterns are correct. However, it's very misleading to describe the book's contents as a "system," which in the investing world means a set of rules that can be strictly followed. Instead, it's a set of guidelines and philosophies on which you will have to add your own hard-earned experience to create a system.
   
   Which brings me back to the overinflated claim that, "Anyone can learn to invest wisely with this bestselling investment system!" It's absolutely false. So much is left to discretion that it will require someone with particular aptitudes to be successful at it. If you enjoy doing extensive analysis, have an innate skill at identifying visual patterns, and have the patience to study and learn chart reading, then you will probably be successful with O'Neil's approach. Someone who doesn't meet those criteria will almost certainly fail.



2. Good introduction to equity investing for retail investors. O'Neil's methods do not work for professional fund managers.



3. Some good thoughts mixed with some b.s. and a lot of self advertising for his business. The pro america agenda was unnecessary as was the views on politics and Iran.



4. I was really looking for a book on trading stocks (versus investing) and I believe that this book offers lessons applicable to both.
   
   When I first began trading stocks online, I made the exact mistakes that this book says not to do. When a stock jumped in price, I sold and took profits too early when I should have held on and purchased more. When a stock fell in price, I either bought more stock to bring my average cost down or held on to my losing stocks too long "knowing" that eventually they would have to come back up. I was wrong. These are the classic mistakes that according to the book, most traders make, which is why they end up losing their money. And this was the exact same thing that happened to me.
   
   If I had read this book before getting into the market, I may have been able to prevent the big losses and keep the small gains I had been able to make. I would definetly recommend this book to anyone interested in learning how to trade or invest in the stock market. I haven't tried out the "CAN SLIM" system taught in this book, so I can't tell you if it works or not or that I made money following it, but I can tell you that the system makes sense and is worth learning even if you choose not to follow it.



5. Absolutely this book is a classic!
   
   In his book, Bill O'neil calls his breakout trading system "CANSLIM". Each letter in the word C-A-N-S-L-I-M stands for one of the seven chief characteristics of great winning Growth Stocks at their early developing stages, just before they make huge profits for their shareholders. The explanation of each letter is as follows:
   
   * C = Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share
   * A = Annual Earnings Increases
   * N = New Products, New Management, New Highs
   * S = Supply and Demand: Small Capitalization plus Volume Demand
   * L = Leader or Laggard
   * I = Institutional Sponsorship
   * M = Market Direction: What is the overall Stock Market doing?
   
   This system works, and this book teaches you both fundamental and technical analysis.

5 comments about The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing.

1. I cant recommend this book enough, even though I live in the UK and am dealing in the FTSE, the theories, strategies, references to sources of information are relevant.
   
   The book was written in a concise manner and understandable to anyone who is interested in stock market investing.
   
   Definately recommend this book to all and will be one that I pickup from time to time to refresh myself on potential strategies or ideas that I missed out on the first read!
   
   Thanks Jason Kelly for sharing your knowledge and experience!
   
   Avtar Singh



2. This book is a great book for anyone looking to invest money in the stock market. I have read many investment books and stock trading books and this is one of only 3 books that I would advise a new trader or investor to read.
   
   The author, Jason Kelly, starts by explaining "Why Stocks are Good Investments". Jason points to strong and true facts that show that owning stocks is one of the best ways of increasing wealth over time. He explains how you make money in stocks and goes into the difference between "total return" and "capital appreciation". Jason then explains why companies even sell stocks and how that works. If you are new to stock investing or trading and you do not have a clear understanding of this then you should read this. There is a quick section also about how to choose a broker to help you buy and sell stocks.
   
   Jason then goes into "How to Evaluate Stocks". He explains the difference between value and growth investing. Jason does a great job of defining and explaining all of the most common terms in evaluating the fundamentals of companies including: current ratio, EPS, ROE, Net Profit Margin, P/E, and P/S. Then he explains common terms for evaluating the technicals of the stock price including: SMA, MACD, RSI, relative price strength, and volume. Knowing and understanding these terms is a must for anyone who wants to invest or trade in individual stocks.
   
   After reading the 1st 3 chapters you will know half the things they teach you in a 4 year Business Degree. Believe me, I have a degree in Business.
   
   Then Jason tells you "How the Masters Tell Us to Invest". Here he summarizes how each of the best traders and investors of all time advise individuals to build wealth. He covers Benjamin Graham, Phillip Fisher, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, William O'Neil, and Bill Miller. You could read whole books about each one of these investors or you could just read these sections in Jason's book where he breaks down their main points. Jason then has a section where he finds the common points that all these investors share called "Where the Masters Agree". This section will be the backbone for the strategy of the author.
   
   Jason then explains "How History Tells Us to Invest". Here Jason explains some backtesting on various investing methods and shows that combining Value and Growth Investing is one of the best ways to build wealth over time.
   
   Then we get into the real meat of the book. Section 4 "Permanent Portfolios" introduces you to easy to follow strategies to beat the market over time. This is where both new and experienced investors who have not read this book before will be able to really benefit by reading this. If you are someone who wants to beat the market by only looking at and adjusting your portfolio for a few short minutes about 4 times a year then these strategies are for you.
   
   Jason also has the most exhaustive list of resources for stock research I have ever come across. When you read "Research to Riches" section you will have a gateway to all the best data on stocks available through many many sources.
   
   In "This Books Strategy" Jason explains how we will use the "Permanent Portfolio" to build our fortress of wealth and then create and maintain a watch-list of individual stocks that we will send out of our fortress of wealth when the time is right to bring back even higher returns. Jason thoroughly explains how and where to gather information and compare it to stocks you already have on your list so that you are not overwhelmed by all the data and stock gurus available. Jason explains when may be good times to buy and when may be good times to sell stocks. He also has a very interesting way of tracking your performance and reviewing your choices to learn from the past.
   
   And of course he has an investment website and "Letter" to compliment what we have learned in this book. The website is a great way to read his recent observations which he updates with new articles on a regular basis and is available to anyone for free. And he has the "Letter" which is a very affordable service (about $5.35/month I think) where he emails members on updates of his portfolios and his view of the market direction. I recommend at the very least to check it out on his website where you can find a sample "Letter" and see how his portfolios have performed against the "market".



3. This book provides a good basic education on stock investing. So if you are a beginner it is worth the read, if on the other hand you are already investing or trading skip to more advanced books.
   
   In the section on evaluating stocks the author advocates using classical measurements such as PE ratios, price/book etc. My experience has shown that PE ratios are not the cause of a stock performance but the result of it. That is, stocks already experiencing high growth tend to have high PE ratios and if you used PE ratios as one of your criteria you would have missed the best stocks in recent years. I have found that a combination of stock holders equity and retained earnings is a better measure of future performance. A steady increase in stockholders equity with 15% year over year growth in retained earnings is usually a better indication of future price advance.
   
   I was somewhat disappointed with the lack of depth in the section on technical analysis . These days holding times for stocks are becoming much shorter making technical analysis a major part of an investors decision on timing a stocks purchase.
   A major part of the book lists resources for investing. In my opinion this was somewhat of an overkill since these resources can be easily found just by doing a simple internet search.
   You can learn some basic investing information from this book but before acting on any specific stocks, I will be sure to read other more advanced books first.



4. It is occasionally easy to make money buying and selling stocks. This book tells you how to do just that! It gives good stock investment techniques for "home gamers" that are willing to do some simple research.



5. What a waste of money. I bought this book in hopes that I would get thoughtful analysis like Mr. Kelly provides on his blog. However, this book is for the neophyte investor. If you have absolutely no idea how the stock market works, then you definitely want this book. It's more a dummies guide to the stock market rather than an investing book. The most interesting part of this book was the quotes from 6 "masters" of the market (Buffett, Fisher, Graham, Lynch, Miller & O'Neil). But it wasn't enough to make me happy I bought the book.
   
   Further, it provides ideas how you can beat the market. Yet, Mr. Kelly himself states 'gurus' can't do it and beat the market just 48% of the time. Yet he goes on to tell you how you can beat the market! His biggest tip is James O'Shaughnessy's cornerstone value strategy, which was identified 14 years ago (1996). One of those two strategies (which you can invest in via HFCVX) has materially underperformed both its benchmark Russell 1000 Value Index and the S&P 500 Index over the past decade. The other HFCGX has materially outperformed through Aug 2009 (both stats are according to CXO Advisory group). But if you add in the next 6 mos, this performance diminishes (although it still outperforms). Still - would you have chosen the right fund? 50/50 shot of that. And if you invested in both you'd have probably been better off in an index fund. Other than this supposed tip, he basically just talks up ValueLine's service and how you should do lots of hard work and analysis and then you can beat the pros. After this hard work, you'll know how to 'time' the market so you can get in and out with a tidy profit. I'll bet if we look at Mr. Kelly's assets the bulk come from book royalties and not stock picking!

5 comments about The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide: Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income, and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times.

1. I have subscribed for several months to Martin Weiss's free Internet newsletter "Money and Markets". Thus I have read many of the ideas brought together in this book. I am amazed so few people bother to research the backgrounds of guys like Martin before plunging headlong into investments that can make them poor.
   
   This is not to say that Mr. Weiss is deliberately defrauding anyone. It is conceivable that, like prominent authors such as Howard J. Ruff and Gary North in 1979-1982, Weiss believes what he writes. Nor am I suggesting that the US economy is in great shape and won't plunge us into another major equities market crash soon. One may accept both premises and still believe Mr. Weiss's advice to be unsound.
   
   Ultimately, the "proof of the pudding" is in the eating. Many of Howard Ruff's followers discovered to their personal woe that the economic world of 1980 wasn't coming to an end in quite the manner that their prophet predicted. Gold did not appreciate to $2,000 per ounce and gold stocks did not provide leverage on this predicted explosion in hard asset values. Silver crashed 90%+ after the Hunt Brothers' effort to corner the silver market failed. Quite a number of Ruff's investors crashed along with their money and investors who follow Weiss could follow a similar trajectory.
   
   Weiss' advice might be assessed from the investment results he has already produced for people who have paid thousands of dollars for his advice. In this context, I suggest that readers investigate the following:
   
   ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEEDING File No. 3-12341 Securities and Exchange Commission, June22, 2006. This proceeding details findings supporting administrative penalties of over $2 million dollars assessed against Mr. Weiss and his associate Larry Edelson. A finding of the Cease and Desist order was "...during the relevant time period, many subscribers who followed each Weiss Research trading recommendation - as Weiss Research encouraged its subscribers to do - experienced overall returns that were substantially lower than Weiss Research's profit examples and most actually lost money." Also pertinent was the finding that Weiss and Edelson acted as Investment Advisers under SEC definitions, at a time when not licensed to do so. You're going to trust these guys to guide your financial future? What are you thinking?
   
   Another source appears to have been written by former investors of Martin Weiss, in the UK. The site features a long-term trading history for investments recommended by Mr. Weiss to his paying clients. This source confirms that Weiss investors have persistently lost money. Search Google for the term "trading and legal history" plus "Martin Weiss".
   
   Recent issues of Weiss Research "Money and Markets" make claims of "guaranteed profits" by applying a type of technical analysis called "cycle theory". This theory is supposedly validated by data analysis of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, now directed by Richard Mogey. However, multiple online references reveal that the methods of the Foundation have been discredited by legitimate economists since it was chartered under Herbert Hoover. As but one example, the Foundation claims to be able to predict major economic shifts from the study of over 200 years of economic history. Such a claim is foolish to the extreme. The structures and processes of our economy changed radically between any two 50 year periods of that time. Thus there is no underlying cause-and-effect mechanism from which to derive an "economic cycle" that applies to the full period. One might as well be dredging up investment advice from a seance.
   
   Thus to the reader: treat the book as light entertainment. If you act on its advice, you could find yourself poor within a few years.



2. I've read a lot of material from the author as well as tracked his investment website. Over the years he has been one of the "most correct" economist that I track. He has good analysis and I like his philosophy of the markets. This book is pretty much an accumulation of all of his best ideas and recommendations. He doesn't take a "we WILL have a deflationary spiral or we WILL have runaway hyperinflation", he simply gets defensive for either scenario and tries to show you ways to preserve capital. He has a conservative defensive approach that if followed will keep you relatively safe in the stormy seas ahead. I highly recommend this book, it is one of my favorites.



3. Except for the references back to his dad (he must have loved his dad)which were corny or not revelant, the book strives to tell it like it is without the constant hype you get on CNBC and other networks.
   Pay attention to the common sense approach to always be ready in case things go south.



4. Have not finished the book yet. It seems to be written at a level I can easily understand. Don't know if I agree with everything that is said but it is a good way to see what is going on.



5. In this savings and investment "survival guide," financial publisher Martin D. Weiss proclaims that the world is entering another depression. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, his investment advisory and rating firm outperforms all other companies at "forecasting future financial trouble." Indeed, for two decades, Weiss has accurately predicted "nearly every large financial failure in the United States," including the latest financial collapse. When it comes to doom-and-gloom financial prognostications, Weiss has excellent bloodlines. His father, J. Irving Weiss, was one of the few economists who predicted the Great Depression at the time. So what does this modern-day Cassandra have to tell us? Weiss claims that as wretched as things are now economically, they will get much worse in the years to come. However, in addition to dismal tidings, he offers numerous specific, well-informed recommendations on how to protect - and even increase - your assets during the "Second Great Depression of modern times." getAbstract suggests that if you want to study fiscal advice that covers the spectrum from pessimism to optimism, this book expertly handles the pessimistic end.