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Investing - Commodities books
Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Morgan Downey. By Wooden Table Press.
The regular list price is $29.95.
Sells new for $23.96.
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5 comments about Oil 101.
- This book was brand new! The price was the best I could find! Fast delivery as well.
- Me: College student studying to be a petroleum engineer and reading whatever he can about the industry.
This Book: A ton of information in it. (Not so much on the geology/drilling/production side of it compared to two other books I have) But goes SO MUCH more into everything else. Especially liking the Finished Products chapter.
Absolutely worth picking up.
I just wish I could squeeze all of its knowledge into my brain.
- Many of the reviewers beforehand indicated that they were industry professionals with several intro. texts and comprehensive introductions to the petroleum industry already in their bookshelves. I am not one of them. I approached OIL 101 as a complete rookie who was almost completely ignorant of the details and scope of the petroleum industry, but who had lots of questions.
Some of the questions I had (and were gloriously answered) in this wonderfully helpful book include:
. How did there get to be only about half a dozen major privately owned integrated oil companies in the world? (Mergermania, plus the fact that most OPEC nations and a large number of non-OPEC nations have nationalized their oil companies.)
. Does this "Big Oil" run the show as far as global exploration and production of crude is concerned? (Hardly: a number of OPEC countries have several times the reserves of Exxon-Mobil and the other big shareholder-owned corporations, no matter how those "proven" reserves are measured). Even non-OPEC "Pemex" (Petroleos Mexicanos) has reserves that outstrip those of the biggest Major, Exxon-Mobil.
. Why is it that the U.S. Northeast Coast is reliably served by oil pipelines carrying both "dirty" (crude) and "clean" (refined) petroleum up from the Gulf of Mexico, yet New England still depends on overseas tankers (complicated!).
. Is it true that the world has begun to run out of oil? (Apparently, yes, says author Morgan Downey, who holds to the "Hubbert Thesis" that about 30 - 40 years after a country has peaked in established reserves of crude oil, its output will start to slide -- irrevocably.) Reserves in the USA peaked in the 1930s, output peaked in 1970, and total U.S. production (even including Alaska) has been sloping downward ever since. This is especially scary since the evidence indicates that some of the biggest "bigs" -- the nationalized ones -- deliberately bumped up and overinflated their reserve estimates in the 1980s so that they could pump and sell more crude under OPEC quotas. But many countries are acting as though the easy-to-drill oil is getting scarce. Saudi Arabia, no. 1 in reserves, has started drilling for oil offshore. No country with access to huge amounts of crude on dry land is going to go offshore -- it's too expensive.
. Is it true that most of the plain old American 87 octane gasoline for cars is a generic commodity and goes through the pipelines as such? (Yes.) Is it true that any distinguishing features such as cleansing or performance-improvement additives, and color, are added to the gasoline right before distribution at the local level? (Again, Yes.) In fact, large shipments of 87 octane from multiple suppliers routinely go through the Texas - New Jersey Colonial Pipeline without being batched -- the quantity is measured coming out and since there is very little commingling, it all shakes out regardless.
. Does this mean it's largely irrelevant to the market if you decide to punish one Major Oil Co. in particular by refusing to buy their product at retail? (It makes very little difference -- again, what's put in and what come out may well have different suppliers and recipients.) Is it true that retail sellers of gasoline are usually independent entrepreneurs whose markup on the actual gasoline is only a few pennies a gallon? (Sadly, yes.)
Unsurprisingly given all this, Downey believes that in the near future we are going to witness:
. continued flaky and unreliable crude reserves estimates coming from the OPEC countries;
. increasing difficulty in drilling and procuring crude oil, especially offshore;
. ever more expensive and elaborate methods to suck up, blow out, flood out, or otherwise squeeze as much oil as possible from dying wells, both on- and offshore;
. and a likely lessening in the number of "branded" filling stations by the five of six majors who sell gasoline at retail here in the USA (Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron and Conoco-Phillips), because retail is the most commodified and least profitable segment of vertically integrated oil, as opposed to upstream exploration and drilling. (That aspect being the most risky, I need hardly say.)
There is so much more that Downey covers, including enough geology that we can understand where oil is worth prospecting for, and where not; a chemical assay of crude oil and its trip through (chiefly U.S.) refining with its emphasis on "catalytic cracking"; and in fact what happens to those hydrocarbon molecules that they can wind up in products as disparate as aviation gasoline, retail automotive gasoline, jet fuel, bitumen (from which asphalt is made), and olefins, and plastics, and so on and on. He further covers US environmental laws, the many, many ways there are to drill for oil (and the increasingly complex construction of deepwater rigs), the many ways that speculators and Big Oil can hedge risk (it just starts with options and gets madely derivative at times), and whether a national reliance on ethanol was a sound choice (Well....).
I do wish Downey had spent a little more time on natural gas (or as he chemically and correctly calls it, "methane") past the point of getting it ready for the natural-gas pipeline, but I understand as an author he had to draw the line somewhere. All in all OIL 101 is an amazingly fact-filled and interesting 433 pages of Things Petroleum; it even has a very useful and comprehensive Index. Now, if you are looking for politics and drama in your oil, there are many books that tackle the issue that way (I would recommend in particular THE PRIZE by Daniel Yergin). But if you want the facts, up straight, comprehensively, logically explained and understandable to the layman but not dumbed down, you should buy OIL 101. With similar intro books and texts selling for two to three times as much, it's quite a bargain, too!
- Mr. Downey has given both the layman and oil industry insiders an informative and fascinating read in Oil 101.
He leaves almost no oil and gas topic untouched - from history, to chemistry, to production, transportation, refining and sale of refined products. If I had to choose only one book on the oil and gas industry to own, this would be the one.
- This book is great and reads like a story. I bought the book because i met an oil trader who gave me a lot of knowledge and recommended that i learn just a bit to know about oil. I bought this book and have learned great deal from it.
it starts with history of oil and moves on to various ways of finding and extracting oil (along with much more info). it also reads like a story and keeps you wanting to learn more and more about oil.
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Eric Jay Dolin. By W. W. Norton & Company.
The regular list price is $29.95.
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5 comments about Fur, Fortune, and Empire: The Epic History of the Fur Trade in America.
- Eric Jay Dolin, author of Leviathan: The History of Whaling in America, now explores the history of the American fur trade in Fur, Fortune, and Empire: The Epic History of the Fur Trade in America. I'll be honest, I wasn't crazy about Leviathan - it had an amazing amount of detail, but I felt it was more a collection of anecdotes than a historical analysis. Fur, Fortune, and Empire suffers from similar defects, but also has a more focused narrative. I felt like the book was a typical freshman college report - an A for the amount of effort and research, but a B for the depth of analysis and writing.
First, the book: Fur, Fortune, and Empire follows some of the pivotal events of the American fur trade. While the book claims to cover the period from 1550-1900, in reality it focuses on the early 1600s and early 1800s. Dolin argues that the fur trade was integral to American history, leading to the founding of cities like Springfield, MA (my dad's hometown) and encouraging British settlers to expand into Dutch and French territory. I think Dolin is right about this and makes a good case for the importance of the fur trade in U.S. history. For that alone, Fur, Fortune, and Empire is worth reading.
Now the bad. At times when reading Fur, Fortune, and Empire, I felt almost like I was reading a World Bank report. It is brimming with the traditional elements of history: "names, dates, and places," dryly recited. However, there's no exciting characters, little analysis, and at times just becomes just a forgettable collection of anecdotes. I've read many, many academic history books, many much longer than this book's 300 photos, but the best books have one central theme or argument and stick with it. By contrast, Fur, Fortune, and Empire could really have benefitted from an timeline and/or a conclusion that outline the key points of the fur trade (such as when and why certain developments took place). Much of this is in the book, but it's hidden in between all of the anecdotes. Some other way of highlighting important developments would have given Dolin's work more of an impact - a memorable takeaway because, let's face it, I don't have a photographic memory and probably won't remember most of the anecdotes in the book a year from now.
Overall, Fur, Fortune, and Empire will probably be a difficult read, but is packed with anecdotes. If you frequently read histories of early America, this would be a worthwhile addition to your list (or, if you liked Leviathan, you'll probably love this book). But I wouldn't recommend the book to general audiences - the narrative is simply too dry, too much a collection of trivia to excite most readers. I suspect the book's greatest appeal will be for professional historians who focus on early America or natural resource consumption. For general audiences, I'd give the book 3.75 stars.
- The history of conquest to colonize America by Europeans is replete with many tales and motivations and Eric Jay Dolin's very well researched account puts one special resource at the top of the list: Furs and most specifically, beaver fur.
Historians have noted many motivations to colonize America from the basic curious desire to see what lay across the Atlantic ocean, to seek new opportunities to expand empires, resource accumulation, to escape socio, political, and religious persecution, etc. and this is all true to one degree or another, but as Dolin so articulately illustrates, the fur trade was the fuel that most predominately ran the engine of exploration and colonization. The lust for fur and it's monetary rewards was the key component in the struggles between the various European countries for dominance in the fur trade and more importantly, control of territory. The English finally won the turf and trade battles, but with their oppressive rules, regulations and taxes, they drove the colonists to rebellion and the desire for an independent nation. Still, all the original colonists (English, French, Spanish, Dutch, Swedes, Germans, etc.) so lusted for the furs of America that they continued to jockey for control of the fur trade in Europe and Asia. How the rabid lust for furs affected the American Indians and the land they once controlled, is clearly laid out in a tragic subjugation of a once proud people.
Dolin's narrative is fascinating and at points, reads like an adventure novel (understandable because much of the American frontier was first visited by adventurers seeking fame and fortune and their stories are told here). Dolin makes a good argument that even the Lewis and Clark expedition was very much motivated not only by the desire for the new government to seek a passage to the west coast, but also to beat out the French, English, and Spanish for control of more and more fur hunting ground. Staking a claim to the entire American continent would do just that.
Dolin takes the evolution of the fur trade right up to the present and accounts for the evolution of sustainable fur hunting regulations brought about by the close extinction of virtually all fur-bearing animals in north America- a good ending to an engrossing account of American History in much of it`s rape and pillage early years.
- Fur, Fortune, and Empire is rich in fascinating detail, broad in scope, and very well written. I read the book quickly, because I wanted to find out what happened next, get to know another amazing person, and learn American history through a new perspective. I think what makes Dolin's history writing engaging is the compelling diverse narrative about places, people, events, markets, geography, and ecology. I look forward to reading it again in the future!
- Just finished Fur, Fortune, and Empire and enjoyed it very much. One of the luxuries of being a high school teacher and coach is the opportunity to read several history books over the summer. This work was certainly the highlight of my reading season.
I remember fondly running trap lines in high school (mostly for muskrat) to earn a little extra spending money. However, even with that experience, I had not fully connected the importance of the fur trade to the expansion of our United States. This book will certainly be used in my AP US History class this fall as a valuable resource.
The book has a lot of enjoyable stories about some real characters of American history.
Keith Pogue
- SOFT GOLD. Today furs are often regarded as politically incorrect, and the only mention of beavers is the occasional local newspaper article re the nuisance of a dam to someone's property. However for over 250 years in North America, from the late 1500s to circa 1840, the beaver was a valuable commodity (main market: top hats for European gentlemen), often referred to as "soft gold". Dolin's aptly-titled book persuasively traces the driving force of acquisition of beaver and other furs on U.S. history, from the huge influence on the first colonies of the French (indeed, the fur trade was the primary motivation); British (beaver fur was the Pilgrims' first cash crop); and Dutch. But the influence didn't cease with the colonies. The fur trade also was a major factor in the French and Indian War, the Revolutionary War, and the War of 1812 (and vice-versa--i.e. laws etc. were passed because of the fur trade), and in general drove westward transcontinental expansion.
But there were many other influences. One was that the fur trade was probably the largest factor in defining the final U.S.-Canadian border. Two examples: The border through the middle of 4 of the Great Lakes preserved the (canoe) transport route of furs from the interior of Canada to Montreal; the wagon trains led to the Oregon Territory by the (ex) mountain men swung the balance of power in this co-occupied(U.S. and British)region to the U.S., bringing to the U.S. the land west of the continental divide, north of the Columbia river, and below the 49th parallel (the current state of Washington, the Idaho panhandle, and western Montana).
Dolin has scoured hundreds of sources, summarizing key information in a compelling succinct narrative for the general reader. For the history buff, there are about 980 footnotes, fascinatingly amplifying interesting points and/or putting them into context with other contemporary events. Bottom line: read this book to know more about an under-appreciated part of American history. Recalling the saying: the business of America is business, the fur trade was a primary early American business (making John Jacob Astor America's first milionaire).
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Sheldon Natenberg. By McGraw-Hill.
The regular list price is $65.00.
Sells new for $36.84.
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5 comments about Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques.
- Explains in clear and readable terms option pricing and the way in which volatility is determined and affects the price modelling.
- This is a fundamental "must read" for anyone who seriously intends to trade options.
It's not a kind and gentle read (meaning you're going to get ALL the details about what drives option pricing). Sometimes you need to read through a section then back up and read it again - just like any legitimate textbook.
What you'll take from the book is true insight into what's happening on the other side of the trade - and how to leverage that to your advantage.
Again - a must read for anyone who is truly serious.
- Natenburg is often referred to as the bible of options. If you are in that business, this is a great choice to read. Although dry at times (as a result of the subject), this book is thorough and a must have for those who are learning.
- The book dwells on too much theory:
1)Not hands on.
2)Too much of explanation with few examples and kind of feel abstract sometimes.
I got headache and resold mine. Don't get carried away by the 5 star reviews. This might not be for everyone.
- It has been 32 days and I still have not received this book.
Murray Tosh
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Margot Morrell and Stephanie Capparell. By Penguin (Non-Classics).
The regular list price is $15.00.
Sells new for $8.25.
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5 comments about Shackleton's Way: Leadership Lessons from the Great Antarctic Explorer.
- My boss assigned to me and my coworkers and it was excellent! An adventure book with real tips on how to be a likeable yet extremely efficient leader in any situation. I definately think it gave some good insight on how to just work well with others in general. Great book for any business/organization for team building and a must-read for someone who struggles managing others and doesn't understand what they are doing wrong.
- Ernest Shackleton was an amazing man and this semi biographical book on his leadership style highlights his unique insights into his people, making clear his thought processes and illustrating his implementation of the principles he held.
He has always been one of my heroes. This book shows me why he made such an impression on me. Instinctively, Shackleton knew how to lead his staff because he knew how he himself had been treated in his early years both at school and in the merchant navy, and he was deteermined not to treat his men the same way. Able to get the best from his people was a skill he derived from personal experience as well as reading psychology, philosophy, poetry and Scripture.
Telling the story of the Endurance in parallel with the leadership points allows the reader to see the relevance for each. I found the summary at the end of each chapter most valuable.
A true Servant leader, his men loved him, and this book shows us why.
Highly recommended
- The book arrived just as promised and more quickly than I had anticipated. It is so gratifying to be able to do business with people who produce what is promised. While I haven't read the book yet, it comes recommended from a college professor who teaches leadership classes. The book is required reading for the class, and students who have read it give it high praise. Shackleton's Way: Leadership Lessons from the Great Antarctic Explorer
- I was required to read this book for my final class in a master's of education program. The book was amazing. Not only was it a great historical biography but also had very concrete guidelines for leadership. The guidelines can be translated for any supervisory role.
- If you are a leader or studying Leadership, this is a dynamic book to read. In trying times, most people give up - but Shackleton kept his employees going - always looking for way to keep spirits up and motivation high. I will use it in classes I teach going forward.
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Michael W. Covel. By Harper Paperbacks.
The regular list price is $16.99.
Sells new for $7.30.
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5 comments about The Complete TurtleTrader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires.
- I'm a trend follower and a chartist and trade options, I've turned 30,000 dollars into over 400,000 dollars in a year and a half to date. I think that like futures, options with an expiration date on an underlying asset, offers an interesting way to view the market. Some of my biggest moves were simply following the trends, and investing ten percent of my capital in 3 to 6 month calls. My biggest winner being Priceline, which I was in with 20 front month calls at 240 when it was rising from it's bottom, I scaled out of the trade with a little less than 70,000 dollars in profit to secure profit.
I remember finding this book when I was just getting started in the markets. I started off with Trend Following by Michael Covel, which in my opinion is a masterpiece and quentisential for anyone who wants to do anything that involves Technical Trading, it is one of those books that should be selling at 150 dollars but is selling at 18 dollars, it could sell at a 1,000 and still be worth it. This book has a great amount of information. For the trader side the entire section on the Turtle method is astounding. I think the entire story reads with such reasearched insight that it's hard not appreciate the work that Michael Covel put into writing this masterpiece.
I've used many of this books methods on the stock market with great success, you obviously have to modify some rules, and make the system work for you, because, though this system is brilliant and probably could make anyone a millionaire in the market, everyone is different, and fixing a system to work for you, at your level of risk, can add to your success or your failure. The major thing to always remember, as this and any book on trading that's worth it's merit tells you, buy when whatever you're trading is rising, not when it's falling, and cut your losses if it starts to turn against you.
- I had never heard of the turtles until I started searching Amazon for trading books. I thought it might be an entertaining read but I was definitely surprised by how good this book actually is. I had a hard time putting it down. The story is interesting and the trading philosophy is a confirmation of a lot I had been working on. This is worth your time if you're interested at all in trading.
- I was first introduced to the Turles experiment in Way of the Turtle, from Curtis Faith. I really liked his book, and can honestly advise that book to everyone interested in the Turtle experiment. At first I was a bit afraid I would read a lot of things I already knew from Faith his book.
Luckily for me this book didn't bore me. In fact, I could not even put it down at moments when I was reading it. I just had to read further, to see how the Turtles would trade further. The last time I had that was when reading Nicholas Darvas his first book.
Back to this book. The meat for me is in chapters 4 and 5. I think most people will be able to read those chapters and understand/replicate the two systems. Another great point is the endnotes section. Michael Covel did not just fill this book with things he knew or found out on the Turtles, he actually gives the source of his information. Although this is pretty normal in academical works, I rarely find this back in books on trading.
The author also doesn't try to sell or promote the Turtle system to you, nor does he minimizes the blow up of the Turtles succes. In chapter 8 (Game over) a full chapter is devoted to that.
What I also found very nice are the interviews of citations from William Eckhardt and Richard Dennis. Although these guys are pretty known in the trading world, I have not yet found much literature on them.
- Out of all the 'flavours' of Turtle Trading books; this one is by far the best one I have read.
The book tells the story behind the Turtles. Who they were, what they did and then there experiences of being a Turtle. It gives insights into the system used by the turtles which then opened my mind to investigating my own personal turtle trading system.
This book was recommended to me by a proven successful trend following trader in Australia. He has built his own long and medium term systems based on this turtles system. I know for a fact that this guy keeps a copy of this book on his desk and refers to it on a daily basis, even if it is just to reassure him when the going gets tough.
Don't expect to be spoon fed "buy stock XYZ when its price breaks $X...". You will however learn so much from this book! Especially recommended for those who are just starting in your trading journey.
- Yes, this is the best, well-researched written story on the turtles. You can't find anywhere else. It is a great book for any person curious to know about this great experiment, and also about Richard Dennis, which was not much written about except a few newspaper articles from the 80s.
It not only tells the full story from the beginning, the recruitment process, what Richard and Eckhart thought, what kind of people were selected, and why some failed. The pros, the cons, the difficulties of implementing, of following the system Dennis gave them. The extreme importance of the psychology and attitude of each trader to its success.
And it teaches the system! Detail by detail. But it's not the point of the book, and it's not ultimately what matters for the success (for more about that you should read Trend Following).
This is NOT an how-to investing book, not a learning book. And you shouldn't buy thinking it has some kind of magic formula. It's much more of a trader's journey to success than anything else.
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Michael W. Covel. By FT Press.
The regular list price is $21.99.
Sells new for $13.00.
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5 comments about Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets.
- Fairly good book. The author Michael Covel, spends too much time selling trend following as a viable investment style. This comes at the expense of getting into details of how to implement a trend following strategy and how to implement a risk management plan around that strategy. Implementations is the punch line I kept looking for as I read the book. That said, I got a lot out of the book, but this required putting together the little nuggets of wisdom scattered around the book.
- Excellent book about the great traders of Wall Street and how they think. Covel has many priceless quotes from "the masters" that give you insite in the thinking behind their decisions. He describes the different systems that they use and discusses why they choose to use those trading systems, rather than employ the traditional "Fundamental Analysis" of profits, blue book, earnings and so forth.
Covel's initial discussion is to convince you that the traditional Fundamental methods and "Dollar Cost Averaging" is a complete waste of time and do not work as advertised. He also believes that the in and out day trading is not nearly as successful as the trader who trades the trend. Trend traders never buy the bottom or sell the top, but they make excellent profits by trading the middle part of the trends that last a few weeks to a few months. He also compares the draw-downs experienced by various trader's methods in a side by side comparison.
Don't read this book to learn HOW. Read it to understand WHY.
- Disclaimer: A free copy of this book was received from Amazon Vine in exchange for an honest review.
I actually have made several attempts to read Trend Following by Michael W. Covel and moved it back to my stack several times. I kept returning it to my stack in the hopes that someday I would read it all the way through and then take what I learned to go and make millions on the stock market. Well it took me more than a year but I finally made it all the way through. Sadly for anyone who buys this book hoping to learn how to make a small fortune by following market trends, this book will NOT help you do so.
Covel spends most of the book trying to convince the reader of the worth of trend following-- telling the story of successful trend followers, detailing the performance of trend followers in various market crises, quotes and lessons from trend followers, etc etc etc. There is very little meat to the book and very little information about how to actually follow trends. In fact, forget reading the book, and skip directly to appendices E,F and G which are the only parts of the book that contain any actual how to information.
About the only positive thing I can say about the book is that it has whet my appetite to learn more about trend following, but to anyone considering investing in this book, my advice is to put your money under your mattress instead.
- It's probably not for everyone, but Covel makes an in-depth case for the superiority of technical analysis and trend following as the methods of choice for superior returns. Not quite the step-by-step guide I'd hoped for, but there is good, useful information for the beginner and professional alike.
- I have been on my stock market journey for some time and I only wish I had of found this book earlier.
This book is a MUST read for anyone about to start their journey in the markets or anyone who may be walking around and bumping into walls. Whether those walls be listening to hot tips from friends or brokers or your own personality
Trend following is just one of the many strategies that are out available for making money in the markets. For me personally this book opened my eyes to see the value in having a systematic approach to trading. Without a systematic approach to your entries, exits, stops, money management etc. you will get eaten alive.
This book may not give you an exact road map to building your own Trend Following strategy, but if it opens your eyes to the concept and sets you on your own journey of discovery into this style of trading then it has done its job.
Once again, highly recommended, especially to the people who haven't quite 'cracked' it just yet.
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Robert Edwards and John Magee. By Snowball Publishing.
The regular list price is $39.99.
Sells new for $31.57.
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5 comments about Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.
- 4 stars for the volume of thoroughly well researched examples and exhaustive coverage of basic patterns.
This book is comprehensive but not complete. There is no information on some modern indicators or, for example, candlesticks or point and figure.
I have the 8th edition.
This book is good to have and I did learn valuable things from it but if you are only going to buy a few books, I would not recommend this as one of them.
On the plus side, there are many many actual stock chart examples. That adds to the length in a good way.
Writing style is very much early 20th century; leisurely rather than short and to the point.
This book is geared toward stocks and commodities but not forex. (although the stock patterns also apply to forex)
- I've read quite a significant amount of trading books, but this one beats the rest by far. It was written in layman's terms with practical applications. A real treasure trove.
- If you want a copy of the original 1940s edition, that is what this is. The Amazon webpage makes it look like you are buying a paperback copy of the most recent hardcover, but that's not the case.
I purchased this item and will be returning it, not because the the 2007 edited version is so great, but because this edition doesn't even have the benefit of the original authors correcting their own work based on feedback and review!!
- I'd recommend this book to anyone wanting an introduction to technical analysis. It is written like a textbook with topics addressed in logical order. This book covers detailed descriptions and analysis of many traditional chart patterns and some attendant trading strategies. Numerous examples are given in annotated charts. Technical terms are defined and explained.
In the ninth edition (©2007), Appendix E contains a Turtle Trading System manual written by Curtis Faith (one of Richard Dennis' original Turtles) - a dated but nevertheless instructional description of a mechanical trading system.
Though this book is a great educational tool, I feel it would be a mistake to take it all literally as a guide to trading. The original author, Magee, last updated the book in 1966. He goes out on a limb regularly in his advice on how certain patterns 'typically' resolve. The probabilities with which his rules apply to today's markets would undoubtedly vary from pre-1966 markets. William J. O'Neil, in his renowned How to Make Money in Stocks (©2009, p.-146), said that many patterns discussed by Edwards & Magee such as triangles, coils and pennants have, in recent times, shown to be "unreliable and risky" patterns "without sufficient time or price correction to become proper bases."
I found the book a frustrating slog to get through because Magee uses a very formal, wordy and repetitive writing style. In the eighth and ninth editions professor Bassetti has added numerous editor's notes and extra chapters to the original, but frequently uses awkward, incomplete sentences to belabor the obvious. More annoying were Bassetti's repeated attempts to be clever, e.g. p.- 415: "The wild frontier of the Internet and of the gunslinger speculators. Amazon bucks on. Give us a slug of rotgut whiskey and get out the ruler", or "one might almost say awesome, if the word were not in such currency on `Saturday Night Live' and the `Comedy Channel'". This sort of running commentary gets tiring after 800 pages.
- This is a great book for anyone interested in learning the field of technical stock analysis
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Mark Douglas. By Prentice Hall Press.
The regular list price is $45.00.
Sells new for $24.50.
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5 comments about The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes.
- Well, after reading several other books, I find myself here writing a review. Mostly, I believe that I have spent my money in vain buying this book. I trade FX and stocks for a living, and I quickly found out the importance of discipline. Seeing that added discipline has improved my trading, I went on buying this book. In terms of what you can learn, is worthless--it boils down to ''the markets are not going to give you profits just because you've spent X hours analyzing''. It has an intrinsic value however: it can help you formulate your own thoughts.
The more I trade, the more I think discipline cannot be learned from a book. I can tell you in this review my basic concept of discipline: plan your work, work your plan. But the fact is that you can read it over and over, and understand it, and still fail to implement it, and that there is actually no reason to buy a book. Douglas has a way of trying to analyze you without meeting you in person, and this will work if you are the average person. but if you are average, please give up trading!!! you will lose money, and time, and possibly someting far more precious like your husband/wife. If you commit to trade, you are resloved to become above average, and you need a book that shows you how is ''The art of contrarian trading'' from Futia (it is actually a book much more about market and individual psychology then on actual contrarian trading strategies), or even better, start a competitve sport--they require a lot of discipline to succed, and they offer you a way to relax mentally after a hard day trading. And do not make excuses why you cannot play a sport--if you do, you will make similiar excuses when trading, and that means money down the drain
To state it differently, Douglas and Futia tell pretty much the same thing with one difference: Douglas focuses on why you've failed, and Futia on how you'll succed.
Aside from this, the book is highly unsystematic, and repeats itself quite a lot.
IMHO, to learn discipline, play a sport with full commitment, and remember well each time you try to make an excuse for yourself and rationalize things; if you still want to read something about discipline in trading, go with Futia, he'll tell you how you will no longer be average.
- This book wasnt exactly what I thought it would be. It spent alot of time taking apart the mentality of the average trader and contrasting it with what a winning trader should be thinking. Some chapters seem a bit redundant. It makes you examine your beleifs about trading and helps you self examine to see if you have any of these traits that will hurt your trading and also gives practical suggestions for how to change your mentality. It is actually quite good and i could see lots of applications to circumstances outside of trading. All in all my trading has improved since reading this book. Expect alot more pychology than fundamentality or technicality. I would recommend it to be part of a trader's library.
- Excellent!! If you are a trader, get this book and any other book written by Mark Douglas. He is amazing!
- I'm mystified why this book has received any positive reviews at all. At best, the psychological advice in the book sounds like new age mysticism. At worst, the trading advice is so simplistic as to actually be dangerous to new and inexperienced traders. Throughout, the writing is convoluted, long-winded and ultimately lacking in substance.
It's hard to find a page without some pearl of wisdom so absurd as to be worth quoting.
"The dilemma we are confronted with is how can we know what we don't know when what we have already learned will block our perception of what we haven't learned yet." Actually, the dilemma I faced was whether to bother reading to the end of the book or not. (I did, painful though it was, just in case he was saving the best for last. He wasn't.)
Even though anyone reading is book is quite likely the sort of person who likes learning new things, Douglas takes the time to make the case for, well, learning new things. "How could we not be better off by learning something when you consider that the environment can act as a force on us in an almost infinite variety of ways, some of which we know about, many others we couldn't begin to anticipate unless we keep on learning in spite of what we already know?"
I kept on reading in spite of what I already knew, and that's several hours of my life I will never get back.
Unfortunately, Douglas is neither a psychologist nor a writer, and he has nothing to offer traders looking to improve their skills.
- Even if you don't trade, you should read this book. The insight the author gives into a person's psyche is astounding. I learned more from this book than from dozens of psychology books and the couple of psych classes I took in college. On the downside, the author's writing style is very tedious. It took me three times as long as it should have to read this book because I had to reread (at least once) nearly every other sentence. I've heard the author speak (on the Web), and he speaks much more clearly than he writes. But the content is worth fighting your way through the book.
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Jim Rogers. By Random House Trade Paperbacks.
The regular list price is $15.95.
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5 comments about Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market.
- Jim Rogers knows commodities. After all, there is a commodity index that carries his name! So if you want a broad view of the world of commodities and a place to begin your thoughts on commodities as an asset class, I think this is a good place to start.
- One fine morning in Paris, Jim Rogers met a French business writer for breakfast at a local hotel. Rogers, you'll recall, is the famous globetrotting investor who made a fortune running a hedge fund. He retired years ago, at the age of 37. Now he travels around the world and writes books.
They chatted, perhaps over hot coffee and freshly baked croissants. The French writer, of course, was eager to discover what investments Rogers liked. Rogers unwrapped a sugar cube and handed it to her. "Put this in your pocket and take it home," he advised, "because the price of sugar is going to go up five times in the next decade."
Sugar! She laughed, of course, gazing skeptically at the little white cube and looking at Rogers as if he were mad. The year was 2004. Sugar was then only about 5.5 cents per pound. No one was paying attention to sugar.
The beauty of the story, retold in Rogers' book, Hot Commodities, is that he was right. And his prediction looks to come true early, as you can see by the chart titled "Eye Candy." Since Rogers' prediction, sugar is up threefold, hitting 17.21 cents - the highest level in 24 years. That's a better performance than oil, gold or a lot of other commodities.
Sugar has had some great runs in the past. It soared 45-fold from 1966-1974 - hitting a record high of 66.5 cents.
In his book, Rogers lays out a compelling scenario of tight supplies and growing demand. The biggest part of the argument involves Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of sugar. The pieces of his argument have all come together, with new wrinkles that he could not have imagined.
There is significant demand for sugar from investment funds built to deliver returns based on commodity indexes. These funds have become more popular in recent years with the strong performance of many commodities. As a result, billions have poured into the sweetener. Rogers has it figured out.
Review by a writer for Agora Financial, publisher of economic and financial analysis including Financial Reckoning Day Fallout: Surviving Today's Global Depression, The New Empire of Debt: The Rise and Fall of an Epic Financial Bubble, and I.O.U.S.A.: One Nation. Under Stress. In Debt.
- I love Jim Rogers - And save all his online videos
However, for me, this book was entirely useless
Rogers explains why you must be in commodities - But I already knew that
Rogers tells you NOTHING to help you to get into commodities!
- Everyone praises Jim Rogers. And despite that the general trend of what he says is correct, he is very often wrong. For example, i remember when he said in 1986 that there will never be another Democratic President ever again, because the party will self-destruct itself. He was also very negative on Russia, only to see Russian ETFs charge higher and higher. If you truly want to learn how to trade and time the markets in commodities, you should consider buying the books of Linda Raschke and Toby Crabel. They trade for a living and currently run successful hedge funds. Their writings are almost out of print at this point, but you may be able to find it on Ebay or Amazon.
- Title doesn't say "anyone who wants to research their tail off"... but it should. I would have to be investing a large amount of money to invest such a large amount of time figuring this out. I don't have a ton of money. I do suppose the Rogers International Commodity Index is worth looking into.
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Posted in Investing (Friday, September 3, 2010)
Written by Carley Garner. By FT Press.
The regular list price is $34.99.
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5 comments about A Trader's First Book on Commodities: An Introduction to The World's Fastest Growing Market.
- Commodity trading is a high risk game and the more information you have, the better prepared you are to play the game. Carley Garner does a great job of introducing this market to investors who are new to it and want to have more information about how the markets work.
Best of all, the book is written by someone who actually trades commodities for a living versus an academic. I work in the financial services industry and too often books about finance are written by those in academia whose intent is to impress, not inform. This book is written in easy-to-understand words that are truly designed to help you understand at whatever level of investor you may be.
If you are interested in learning more about this speculative form of investing, this is a great place to start.
- "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" is an overarching introduction to the US commodities futures market. Everything from contract size and pricing to choosing a broker is covered. Unfortunately the author covers each topic in such poor depth that I would only recommend this book to someone completely unfamiliar with commodities and futures contracts.
I approached the book expecting to be firmly within the target audience, given the title. However any trader, even one without experience in commodities, would find little of value in this book. Furthermore, I cannot imagine this book helping anyone make money trading commdities. The author makes no attempt to discuss research, data, analytics, mathematics, stochastics, etc. Some of the 'facts' brought up are even dismissed by the author as mere guesses. For example, the author mentions that the top 20% of brokers bring in 80% of the commissions, with the caveat that this estimation has absolutey no basis. Isn't it the role of the author to do research and present information that is both relevant and accurate?
On the positive side, the book is exceedingly approachable. The author makes a great effort to organize the book sensibly and to spell out every detail. I've seen similar books that gloss over too much terminology and get bogged down in too many ill-conceived attempts at explaining the technical aspects of trading. "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" proves a quick and easy read. I imagine it could be a great introduction into the world of commodities or finance in general for the completely uninitiated. Still, the shallow depth (even for an introductory text) is a major negative.
As the price is much lower than the more substantial textbooks I've read, I would recommend this book to those interested in the idea of investing in commodities but unsure what that entails. However, for those serious about investing or with some background in finance, I would suggest looking for a book that offers more technical knowledge and provides serious research and complete examination of individual markets.
- I've got a pretty good grasp of bonds, stocks, and mutual funds, which make up my investment portfolio. I've never known much about commodities trading, and have considered it one of the more risky forms of investing. But, I've always been curious to know more, and often get questions from friends (I tend to be the unofficial "go-to" guy for financial questions).
After reading this book, I feel much better informed, and know enough that I'd be comfortable playing with commodities, if I wanted to. Therein lies the problem: I still think commodities are one of the riskiest forms of investing (the author calls it "speculating", and admits that a retirement plan should NOT be based on commodities trading). The way to make money in commodities is to correctly forecast price changes (buy low, sell high). Unfortunately, there's no evidence that that's possible to do do consistently (with any investment, including stocks), so, based on the law of averages and the significant fees involved, most commodities traders lose money (which the author admits, see quotes below).
The author covers the terminology (there's a lot of lingo unique to commodities), practices, trading platforms, strategies, and everything else a person would need to know to feel comfortable starting. She's not overly rosy and optimistic, and points out potential risks and pitfalls regularly, which was nice to see.
Anyway, the book is good, well-written, and informative (hence the 5 stars), but I still don't think commodities are for me. I'll stick with my passive growth strategy, which is doing quite well for me, with little effort on my part.
Here are some key quotes from the book:
"...most of those participating in the futures markets are simply attempting to profit from variations in price movement..." (pg 26)
"...if a trader can buy low and sell high... regardless of the order, he will be profitable. As simple as this premise is, execution can be challenging. In fact, a majority of speculators walk away from the game with less money than they started with merely because they couldn't find a way to consistently buy low and sell high." (pg 27)
"...if you aren't an aggressive individual with a high tolerance for pain, you probably shouldn't be employing a trading strategy that involves elevated risks." (pg 33)
"...traders shouldn't risk more than 10% of their trading account on any individual trade." (pg 202)
"I would never advocate a large allocation of any retirement account toward commodity trading." (pg 213)
"Never trade money that you can't afford to lose." (pg 214)
- While this book does a good job in explaining the details of trading commodities, I find that it's primary benefit was to convince me that direct commodities trading is not for me. I'm a very active options trader and still feel uncomfortable with direct investment in commodities.
This is not a simple book because it is not a simple subject. There are a lot of things to remember and much of it is not intuitive, as commodities have been traded long before standardization and electronic trading came along. As a result of a lot of the history, different commodities have different pricing structures, different sizes, etc. It's just more than I care to keep up with when I can just invest in an ETF or hire a CTA.
Walking away from the book, I do not feel like I could trade commodities competently even if I understood everything in it. That said, there is value in understanding these concepts if you decide to go the ETF route and ESPECIALLY if you decide to go the CTA route. The knowledge you gain here may well keep you from getting ripped off from a bad broker.
- Far from a "Commodities for Dummies," Carley Garner's book assumes a good deal of reader sophistication when it comes to financial terms and concepts. The book seems aimed at skilled amateur stock traders who want to branch out.
At times -- and probably of necessity -- this reads like a textbook, with plenty of gray pages and even grayer charts. Casual readers looking for a primer probably should look elsewhere.
The author does make attempt to brighten things up with a quip here and there. For example, one chapter is headlined: "Making Cents of Commodity Quotes."
Garner works hard to make sure the reader understands how these markets rose up, history explaining some of their curious procedures and terms such as "pork bellies."
She walks readers through typical margin calls and spends a chapter on the emotions of trading. She also warns right from the start that commodity trading is not for most people.
CNBC "Fast Money" viewers will be thrilled to find a clear explanation of the "contango" -- alas it has to do with the cost to control a commodity and nothing to do with the dance.
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